Burnley at Liverpool Odds, Choose
|Burnley odds||+1050 [BET NOW]|
|Liverpool odds||-400 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+525 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Beneath||3 (-129/+106) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 10 a.m. ET|
Liverpool proceed their quest to interrupt the all-time Premier League factors file on Saturday morning with a match towards Burnley. The Reds would wish 9 factors from their closing 4 video games to beat Man Metropolis’s 100-point efficiency from 2017-18.
Liverpool are big favorites to step nearer to that mark on Saturday however Burnley aren’t any pushovers and have loved a pleasant run of type throughout Venture Restart.
The large information to come back out Merseyside this week is Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson will miss the remainder of the season because of damage. It is a blow to Liverpool’s midfield, however Naby Keita is a succesful alternative within the middle of the park.
The Reds have dropped as many factors of their final 5 matches (a whopping 4) than they did all season lengthy and their underlying metrics for the reason that restart are a bit regarding:
|Stat (per match)||Earlier than the Restart||After the Restart|
Expected goals (also referred to as xG) is a complicated statistic that offers a sign of whether or not outcomes are primarily based on sustainable elements like a gentle creation of scoring possibilities, or whether or not it’s all the way down to points reminiscent of luck or excellent goalkeeping.
Liverpool are saying all the precise issues about being motivated to interrupt the file, however their efficiency for the reason that break is a bit regarding.
You may make the argument that Burnley have been top-of-the-line groups for the reason that restart. The Clarets have earned 10 of a doable 15 factors of their final 5 matches. In typical Burnley vogue they’ve scored simply 4 targets of their 5 matches for the reason that break however they’ve nonetheless managed to earn three wins.
Burnley received some nice information this week as striker Chris Wooden was capable of return from damage and log 39 minutes towards West Ham on Wednesday. Wooden shall be a welcome addition to Burnley’s front-line as he’s averaging 0.63 xG per 90 minutes, which is the fifth-best mark within the Premier League this season.
The Clarets sometimes line up in a defense-first 4-4-2 formation formation, which permits Burnley to maintain eight gamers behind the ball and create a defensive wall that works in unison to disclaim the opposing workforce house to play by way of the middle or between the strains.
Liverpool blanked Burnley, 3-0, within the reverse fixture at Turf Moor again in August. Nevertheless, the sport was rather a lot nearer than the ultimate rating line suggests. Burnley did a great job defensively, forcing Liverpool to take 53% of their pictures from outdoors the field.
In addition they didn’t enable Liverpool to take a shot contained in the six-yard field. Primarily based on the expected goals report, Burnley ought to have misplaced a a lot tighter match.
I anticipate Burnley’s protection to offer Liverpool some points and my mannequin tasks this to be a more in-depth match than the betting market:
- Liverpool projected odds: -216 (68.31% win chance)
- Burnley projected odds: +734 (11.99%)
- Draw projected odds: +408 (19.70%)
- Liverpool projected xG: 2.09
- Burnley projected xG: 0.89
Choose: Burnley +1.5 (+117)
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